Library

What markets did after political events

54 political events since 2018, from wars and coups to elections, sanctions and peace deals, with what currencies, oil, safe havens and the Riftrate index did before and after each one. Free to use and cite.

Wars and attacks14events

Elections14events

Sanctions and trade wars10events

Coups and political crises6events

Date	Event	Type	Riftrate	Market	5 sessions	How unusual
2026-10-04	Brazil election, first round 2026	Election	49 → 76	Brazilian real	+4.9%	bigger than 99% of 5-day moves
2026-02-28	Iran war	War	56 → 93	Brent oil	+34.2%	bigger than 100% of 5-day moves
2026-01-03	US intervention in Venezuela	War	40 → 74	Brent oil	+5.1%	bigger than 78% of 5-day moves
2025-06-24	Israel–Iran ceasefire	Peace	24 → 12	Brent oil	-8.3%	bigger than 93% of 5-day moves
2025-06-13	Twelve-Day War	War	75 → 85	Brent oil	+13.5%	bigger than 100% of 5-day moves
2025-05-12	US and China agree to cut tariffs	Sanctions	72 → 71	Chinese yuan	+0.4%	bigger than 58% of 5-day moves
2025-05-07	India strikes Pakistan	War	58 → 74	Indian rupee	-1.1%	bigger than 94% of 5-day moves
2025-04-09	US pauses most new tariffs	Sanctions	48 → 51	Chinese yuan	+0.3%	bigger than 51% of 5-day moves
2025-04-02	US “Liberation Day” tariffs	Sanctions	58 → 54	Chinese yuan	-0.9%	bigger than 86% of 5-day moves
2025-02-23	Germany federal election	Election	35 → 53	Euro	-0.5%	bigger than 39% of 5-day moves
2025-01-19	Gaza ceasefire takes effect	Peace	33 → 30	Brent oil	-5.2%	bigger than 72% of 5-day moves
2024-12-03	Martial law in South Korea	Political crisis	47 → 51	Korean won	-1.7%	bigger than 82% of 5-day moves
2024-11-05	US presidential election 2024	Election	44 → 39	Mexican peso	-2.4%	bigger than 87% of 5-day moves
2024-07-04	UK election: Labour landslide	Election	26 → 41	British pound	+1.2%	bigger than 73% of 5-day moves
2024-06-09	France: snap election called	Election	30 → 32	Euro	-1.0%	bigger than 72% of 5-day moves
2024-06-04	India: Modi’s BJP loses its majority	Election	41 → 39	Indian rupee	-0.4%	bigger than 65% of 5-day moves
2024-06-02	Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum	Election	43 → 43	Mexican peso	-7.0%	bigger than 100% of 5-day moves
2024-05-29	South Africa: ANC loses its majority	Election	43 → 43	South African rand	-2.2%	bigger than 75% of 5-day moves
2024-04-13	Iran strikes Israel	War	65 → 92	Brent oil	-5.5%	bigger than 75% of 5-day moves
2024-01-13	Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te	Election	77 → 79	Taiwan dollar	-0.7%	bigger than 72% of 5-day moves
2024-01-12	US and UK strike the Houthis	War	77 → 79	Brent oil	+1.0%	bigger than 16% of 5-day moves
2023-11-24	Israel–Hamas truce	Peace	78 → 67	Brent oil	+1.1%	bigger than 17% of 5-day moves
2023-10-07	October 7 attack	War	62 → 98	Brent oil	+7.4%	bigger than 86% of 5-day moves
2023-07-26	Coup in Niger	Political crisis	80 → 84	Brent oil	+2.3%	bigger than 35% of 5-day moves
2023-06-24	Wagner mutiny in Russia	Political crisis	67 → 73	Brent oil	+1.3%	bigger than 21% of 5-day moves
2023-03-10	Iran–Saudi deal	Peace	73 → 24	Brent oil	-9.7%	bigger than 88% of 5-day moves
2022-10-30	Brazil elects Lula	Election	58 → 58	Brazilian real	+6.2%	bigger than 97% of 5-day moves
2022-09-23	UK “mini-budget” crisis	Political crisis	42 → 63	British pound	-2.0%	bigger than 90% of 5-day moves
2022-08-02	Pelosi visits Taiwan, China drills	War	58 → 86	Taiwan dollar	-0.2%	bigger than 31% of 5-day moves
2022-07-22	Black Sea Grain Initiative	Peace	61 → 54	Brent oil	-2.8%	bigger than 44% of 5-day moves
2022-03-08	US bans Russian oil imports	Sanctions	99 → 99	Brent oil	-14.4%	bigger than 94% of 5-day moves
2022-02-26	Russian banks cut from SWIFT	Sanctions	98 → 100	Euro	-3.1%	bigger than 99% of 5-day moves
2022-02-24	Russia invades Ukraine	War	93 → 100	Brent oil	+19.8%	bigger than 96% of 5-day moves
2021-08-15	Fall of Kabul	War	28 → 70	Brent oil	-7.6%	bigger than 85% of 5-day moves
2021-02-01	Coup in Myanmar	Political crisis	43 → 51	Brent oil	+7.7%	bigger than 85% of 5-day moves
2021-01-06	Attack on the US Capitol	Political crisis	19 → 62	Brent oil	+5.3%	bigger than 72% of 5-day moves
2020-11-10	Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire	Peace	14 → 2	Brent oil	+4.3%	bigger than 65% of 5-day moves
2020-11-03	US presidential election 2020	Election	27 → 25	Brent oil	+8.3%	bigger than 87% of 5-day moves
2020-09-27	War in Nagorno-Karabakh	War	33 → 49	Brent oil	-7.1%	bigger than 84% of 5-day moves
2020-09-15	Abraham Accords	Peace	47 → 31	Brent oil	+4.7%	bigger than 69% of 5-day moves
2020-02-29	US–Taliban agreement in Doha	Peace	46 → 21	Brent oil	-11.1%	bigger than 99% of 5-day moves
2020-01-03	Soleimani killed	War	29 → 97	Brent oil	-0.7%	bigger than 13% of 5-day moves
2019-12-12	UK election: Conservative majority	Election	36 → 42	British pound	-0.7%	bigger than 48% of 5-day moves
2019-09-14	Attack on Saudi oil facilities	War	20 → 51	Brent oil	+6.5%	bigger than 89% of 5-day moves
2019-08-05	Yuan falls past 7 per dollar	Sanctions	62 → 79	Chinese yuan	-1.7%	bigger than 100% of 5-day moves
2019-05-05	Trump threatens higher tariffs on China	Sanctions	37 → 66	Chinese yuan	-1.3%	bigger than 96% of 5-day moves
2018-10-28	Brazil elects Jair Bolsonaro	Election	52 → 58	Brazilian real	-0.7%	bigger than 33% of 5-day moves
2018-07-06	First US tariffs on China take effect	Sanctions	27 → 38	Chinese yuan	-0.4%	bigger than 67% of 5-day moves
2018-07-01	Mexico elects Andrés Manuel López Obrador	Election	25 → 32	Mexican peso	+2.5%	bigger than 85% of 5-day moves
2018-06-12	Singapore summit	Peace	25 → 13	Brent oil	+0.4%	bigger than 6% of 5-day moves
2018-05-08	US leaves the Iran nuclear deal	Sanctions	34 → 80	Brent oil	+4.6%	bigger than 68% of 5-day moves
2018-04-27	Inter-Korean summit	Peace	60 → 34	Brent oil	-2.6%	bigger than 42% of 5-day moves
2018-04-14	Western strikes on Syria	War	92 → 98	Brent oil	+2.0%	bigger than 30% of 5-day moves
2018-03-22	US announces tariffs on Chinese goods	Sanctions	72 → 71	Chinese yuan	+0.4%	bigger than 69% of 5-day moves

What markets typically do

Correlation or causation?

Wars and attacks · average cumulative change

Brent oil (14 events)Swiss franc (14 events)US dollar (14 events)

Elections · average cumulative change

Local currency (12 events)Brent oil (13 events)Swiss franc (13 events)US dollar (13 events)

Sanctions and trade wars · average cumulative change

Local currency (8 events)Brent oil (10 events)Swiss franc (10 events)US dollar (10 events)

Coups and political crises · average cumulative change

Brent oil (6 events)Swiss franc (6 events)US dollar (6 events)

Peace deals and ceasefires · average cumulative change

Brent oil (10 events)Swiss franc (10 events)US dollar (10 events)

How to read the library. Each move runs from the last close before the event. “How unusual” compares the 5-day move with every 5-day move of the previous three years. The shaded band is the normal range (5th to 95th percentile) of the first market shown: a path that leaves it is more than everyday noise. Averages over a few events can be driven by one large move. Not investment advice.

Local currencies

Brazilian real Mexican peso Indian rupee South African rand Korean won Taiwan dollar Chinese yuan British pound Euro Canadian dollar