Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Chinese yuan
Chinese yuanBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Trump threatens higher tariffs on China
Donald Trump announces that tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods will rise from 10% to 25%. Riftrate read 37 the day before and 66 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before37Easing
Within 14 days66 ▲ +28.3Tension
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryChina
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese yuan | -0.4% | -1.3% | -2.4% | bigger than 96% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +0.0% | -0.4% | -12.2% | bigger than 7% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.03 pt | -0.07 pt | -0.47 pt | bigger than 57% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.1% | +0.2% | +1.1% | bigger than 28% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.0% | +0.7% | +1.8% | bigger than 57% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.4% | +1.6% | +2.7% | bigger than 82% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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