Figures updated · By the Riftrate team · How the index is built
1. Investors: what markets did after wars, elections, sanctions and coups
Every event in the library has its own page with the moves of oil, the dollar, US Treasury yields, safe-haven currencies and, for elections, the local currency, from the last close before the event to 20 trading days later.
After wars and attacks, Brent oil moved +5.2% on average over the next 5 trading days and +7.3% over 20 trading days, across 14 events. In a normal 5-day window, oil moves between -9.2% to +9.3% nine times out of ten: the shaded band below shows that normal range.
After elections, the local currency moved -0.5% on average over 5 trading days (12 elections). The average hides opposite reactions: markets cheer one result and punish the next.
A worked example: Brazil’s elections and the real
On 4 October 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro came first in Brazil’s presidential election with 47.0% of the vote against 45.2% for President Lula, against most polls. The next day, the Ibovespa stock index closed up 7.7% at a record and the real gained about 4% against the dollar, according to The Rio Times and MarketScreener. The chart compares the real around this vote with the 2018 and 2022 elections. Exchange rates from the Federal Reserve arrive with about a week’s delay, so the latest line fills in progressively.
The pattern is not “elections move currencies” but “surprises move currencies”: when the result differs from what markets expected, the move is large; when it matches the polls, it is often already priced in. See the Brazilian real page and the 2026 first round.
And across the major crises and détentes tracked by the index since 2018, the average move of each market over 20 trading days:
| Market | After a crisis (avg, 20 sessions) | Crises followed by a rise | After a détente (avg) | Weekly link with Riftrate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +11.1% | 5 of 9 | +2.7% | a weak positive link |
| US 10-year yield | +0.08 pt | 6 of 9 | -0.13 pt | a weak positive link |
| US dollar | +0.5% | 5 of 9 | -0.1% | almost no link |
| Swiss franc | -0.4% | 5 of 9 | +0.8% | almost no link |
| Japanese yen | -1.5% | 1 of 9 | +0.5% | almost no link |
| US natural gas | +10.8% | 5 of 9 | -3.5% | almost no link |
| WTI oil | +7.3% | 5 of 9 | +5.1% | a weak positive link |
| US 2-year yield | +0.10 pt | 4 of 9 | -0.20 pt | a weak positive link |
| Financial stress | +0.22 pt | 5 of 9 | -0.12 pt | almost no link |
| Stock-market stress | +0.03 pt | 3 of 9 | -0.04 pt | almost no link |
| Volatility | +0.21 pt | 5 of 9 | -0.14 pt | almost no link |
| Credit stress | +0.02 pt | 4 of 9 | +0.07 pt | almost no link |
| Emerging markets | +0.06 pt | 4 of 9 | +0.03 pt | almost no link |
Where tension matters for prices. Three market risk indices weigh tension by economic exposure: energy supply (oil and gas producers), oil shipping routes (Hormuz, the Red Sea, Malacca) and major economies (the 30 largest by GDP). Each one shows what oil, currencies, Treasury yields and stock-market, volatility, credit and emerging-market stress did the last times it was as high as today.
These figures describe the past. They do not forecast the next crisis and they are not investment advice.
2. Correlation or causation? How to read the data honestly
Two things moving together does not mean that one caused the other. Oil also moves with OPEC decisions, interest rates and the economy; currencies move with central banks. Riftrate uses three tests, from weakest to strongest.
1. Correlation over time. Week by week since 2018, the change in Riftrate and the change in Brent oil have a correlation of +0.17 (451 weeks). A value near 0 means no link, near +1 that they almost always rise together. Each dot below is one week.
2. Who moves first? If tension caused market moves, a rise in Riftrate one week should be followed by a market move the next. The bars show the correlation when the market is shifted by one to four weeks. A bar that stands out on the right of “same week” would suggest that Riftrate leads; on the left, that markets lead.
3. The event test. The strongest evidence comes from dates: when a market jumps on the day of an unexpected event, far outside its normal range, and not before, the event is the most likely cause. That is why every event page shows the shaded normal range and a “how unusual” score: “bigger than 97% of 5-day moves” stands out; “bigger than 40%” is everyday noise.
Even then, keep three caveats in mind: several events can happen in the same week, markets often move before an event they expect, and a handful of events is not a law.
3. Businesses: anticipate supply, price and security shocks
Procurement, logistics, export and security teams use three tools:
- The country pages: for 74 countries, the share of local news about armed violence, its history since 2017 and how unusual today is for that country. A supplier country climbing the ranking for several days is worth a look at routes, stocks and insurance before headlines turn into delays.
- The economic coercion signal, which rises with sanctions, embargoes and trade threats; the sanctions section of the library shows what tariff announcements did to currencies.
- The daily brief, one page a day to share with a team.
See geopolitical risk for businesses.
4. Travellers and people living abroad
The hotspots map and the country pages show in seconds where tension is concentrated. They complement, and never replace, official travel advice: France Diplomatie’s Conseils aux voyageurs, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office or the US State Department.
5. Journalists, students and researchers
The daily series since 2018, the eight signals and country intensity are free to download on the data page, with a ready-made citation. Every chart on this site comes with its source, and the methodology lists every formula and limit.
6. Everyone: one number instead of doomscrolling
Most days, the world is neither ending nor at peace. If the number sits in the middle of the scale, today is a fairly typical day of recent years, whatever the headlines feel like. When it moves into Tension or Crisis, it is worth paying attention.
Frequently asked questions
Do geopolitical events move markets?
Some do, most do not. Large, unexpected events that threaten oil supply, trade or a country’s policy direction often move oil, safe-haven currencies or the local currency well outside their normal range within days. Many headlines leave markets unmoved. The library shows both cases.
What happens to oil prices when a war starts?
It depends on whether the war threatens supply. Across the wars and attacks in the library, Brent moved +5.2% on average over 5 trading days, but attacks on oil infrastructure or shipping routes moved it far more than wars far from producing regions.
How do elections affect a country’s currency?
Mostly through surprise. When the winner or the size of the victory differs from polls, the currency often moves several times its normal daily range; when the result was expected, the reaction is small. The Brazilian real after the 2026 first round is a recent example.
Is a correlation between Riftrate and a market proof of cause?
No. A correlation says two series moved together. The event test, a sharp move on the day of an unexpected event, outside the normal range, is stronger evidence, but even that cannot rule out other news on the same day.
Is this investment advice?
No. Riftrate describes what happened in the past. It is not a forecast, a recommendation or a trading signal.