Market volatility (OFR index) since 2018, weekly · dotted lines: crises and détentes
Market volatility (OFR index) and geopolitical crises
The volatility part of the OFR Financial Stress Index: how much prices swing, and how much investors expect them to swing, across markets. After the 9 crises tracked by Riftrate since 2018, the volatility moved by +0.21 pt on average over the next 20 trading days, and rose after 5 of them. Week by week, it shows almost no link (+0.00) with Riftrate.
Latest0.02index points, 0 = average · 28 October 2026
After a crisis+0.21 ptaverage, 20 trading days
After a détente-0.14 ptaverage, 20 trading days
After a jump of Riftrate+0.17 pt+15 points in a week, 47 cases
Every eventfrom the last close before the event
| Date | Event | Type | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 February 2026 | Iran war | Crisis | +1.46 pt | +1.65 pt |
| 3 January 2026 | US intervention in Venezuela | Crisis | +0.03 pt | +0.71 pt |
| 24 June 2025 | Israel–Iran ceasefire | Détente | -0.33 pt | -0.42 pt |
| 13 June 2025 | Twelve-Day War | Crisis | +0.38 pt | -0.34 pt |
| 13 April 2024 | Iran strikes Israel | Crisis | +0.23 pt | -0.37 pt |
| 7 October 2023 | October 7 attack | Crisis | +0.15 pt | -0.25 pt |
| 10 March 2023 | Iran–Saudi deal | Détente | +0.92 pt | -0.03 pt |
| 24 February 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine | Crisis | +0.67 pt | +0.22 pt |
| 15 August 2021 | Fall of Kabul | Crisis | +0.21 pt | +0.18 pt |
| 15 September 2020 | Abraham Accords | Détente | +0.35 pt | -0.08 pt |
| 3 January 2020 | Soleimani killed | Crisis | +0.00 pt | +0.48 pt |
| 12 June 2018 | Singapore summit | Détente | -0.02 pt | -0.09 pt |
| 27 April 2018 | Inter-Korean summit | Détente | -0.09 pt | -0.07 pt |
| 14 April 2018 | Western strikes on Syria | Crisis | -0.11 pt | -0.37 pt |
How to read this. A handful of events is not a law: one large move can drive an average, and markets also move for reasons unrelated to geopolitics. The link with Riftrate is a correlation of weekly changes, not a cause. This page describes the past and is not investment advice.
Data: Office of Financial Research, “OFR Financial Stress Index”, column “Volatility”, financialresearch.gov. Public data of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.