Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Singapore summit
Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un hold the first meeting between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader. Riftrate went from 25 the day before to 13 at its lowest 11 days later.
Day before25Easing
Low within 14 days13 ▼ −12.423 June 2018 · Complacency
Days to the low11after the event
Back within 5 points6 daysafter the low
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the low
| Signal | Before | Low day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 74 | 12 | ▼ −62.5 |
| Economic coercion | 41 | 22 | ▼ −19.4 |
| Media tone | 3 | 21 | ▲ +18.6 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 25 | 11 | ▼ −14.5 |
| Domestic unrest | 40 | 52 | ▲ +11.9 |
| Escalation momentum | 1 | 10 | ▲ +9.4 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 28 | 22 | ▼ −6.2 |
| War & military | 11 | 17 | ▲ +6.1 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +0.4% | +0.4% | +3.4% | bigger than 6% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.00 pt | -0.04 pt | -0.09 pt | bigger than 31% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.1% | +1.2% | +0.4% | bigger than 90% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.1% | -1.0% | -0.8% | bigger than 65% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.3% | -0.5% | -1.2% | bigger than 30% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.