Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Soleimani killed
A US drone strike at Baghdad airport kills Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force. Iran answers on 8 January with missile strikes on US bases in Iraq. Riftrate went from 29 the day before to 97 at its peak 11 days later.
Day before29Easing
Peak within 14 days97 ▲ +68.614 January 2020 · Crisis
Days to the peak11after the event
Back within 5 points11 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| War & military | 0 | 100 | ▲ +99.7 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 0 | 99 | ▲ +99.0 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 0 | 97 | ▲ +96.8 |
| Economic coercion | 1 | 83 | ▲ +81.8 |
| Domestic unrest | 0 | 81 | ▲ +81.2 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 75 | 100 | ▲ +25.3 |
| Escalation momentum | 100 | 99 | ▼ −1.3 |
| Media tone | 100 | 100 | ▼ −0.2 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +3.0% | -0.7% | -13.9% | bigger than 13% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.08 pt | -0.03 pt | -0.37 pt | bigger than 26% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.7% | bigger than 29% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.2% | -0.0% | +0.8% | bigger than 3% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.5% | -1.0% | -0.1% | bigger than 70% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.