Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Iran–Saudi deal
Iran and Saudi Arabia agree in Beijing to restore diplomatic relations, in a deal brokered by China. Riftrate went from 73 the day before to 24 at its lowest 14 days later.
Day before73Tension
Low within 14 days24 ▼ −48.824 March 2023 · Complacency
Days to the low14after the event
Back within 5 points7 daysafter the low
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the low
| Signal | Before | Low day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| War & military | 90 | 4 | ▼ −86.9 |
| Domestic unrest | 83 | 9 | ▼ −74.1 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 92 | 22 | ▼ −70.3 |
| Escalation momentum | 68 | 14 | ▼ −54.4 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 38 | 3 | ▼ −35.0 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 69 | 40 | ▼ −28.7 |
| Economic coercion | 43 | 24 | ▼ −19.1 |
| Media tone | 56 | 37 | ▼ −18.8 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +1.6% | -9.7% | +6.9% | bigger than 88% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.23 pt | -0.37 pt | -0.63 pt | bigger than 99% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.2% | +0.2% | -1.8% | bigger than 23% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +1.6% | +0.7% | +3.6% | bigger than 53% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +1.0% | +2.6% | +3.6% | bigger than 94% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.