Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Israel–Iran ceasefire
A ceasefire ends the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran. Riftrate went from 24 the day before to 12 at its lowest 10 days later.
Day before24Complacency
Low within 14 days12 ▼ −11.54 July 2025 · Complacency
Days to the low10after the event
Back within 5 points3 daysafter the low
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the low
| Signal | Before | Low day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 100 | 57 | ▼ −42.5 |
| Economic coercion | 2 | 15 | ▲ +13.8 |
| Media tone | 39 | 27 | ▼ −11.8 |
| Escalation momentum | 17 | 9 | ▼ −8.4 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 0 | 4 | ▲ +4.2 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 0 | 1 | ▲ +0.9 |
| War & military | 0 | 0 | ▲ +0.4 |
| Domestic unrest | 0 | 0 | ▲ +0.1 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -7.0% | -8.3% | -3.3% | bigger than 93% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.04 pt | -0.10 pt | +0.01 pt | bigger than 50% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.7% | -1.5% | -1.2% | bigger than 94% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +1.0% | +2.5% | +2.6% | bigger than 96% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +1.1% | +1.6% | +0.1% | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.