Figures updated · Text reviewed · By the Riftrate team · How the index is built
Brazil: three elections, three reactions
On 4 October 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro came first in the presidential election with 47.0% of the vote against 45.2% for President Lula. The next day the real gained about 4% against the dollar and the Ibovespa rose 7.7% to a record, according to The Rio Times. The chart compares the real around the 2018, 2022 and 2026 votes; the shaded band is its normal range.
See the Brazilian real page and the Brazil country page.
Why surprise matters more than the winner
Currency markets trade on expectations. Before a vote, polls and prediction markets are already priced in. On election night, only the difference between the result and those expectations moves the currency: a larger or smaller majority than expected, a surprise second round, a party losing its majority. That is why India’s 2024 election, where the ruling party fell short of a majority, and Mexico’s 2024 election, where the ruling coalition did better than expected, both moved their currencies.
Every election in the library
Each election has its own page with the local currency, oil and safe havens: Brazil 2018, Brazil 2022, Brazil 2026, Mexico 2018, Mexico 2024, South Africa 2024, Taiwan 2024, United Kingdom 2019 and 2024, France 2024, Germany 2025, United States 2020 and 2024. The full list is in the library.
Frequently asked questions
Does a currency always fall when the opposition wins?
No. Markets react to the policies they expect, not to who is in power. A result seen as good for public finances or reforms can strengthen a currency, whichever side wins.
How long does the election effect last?
Often a few days to a few weeks. After 20 trading days, other forces, interest rates, the dollar, commodity prices, usually matter as much as the vote.
Where does the data come from?
Daily exchange rates published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, retrieved from FRED. They are published with about a week’s delay.
Is this investment advice?
No. These pages describe the past.