Figures updated · By the Riftrate team · How the index is built
Market risk today
Three indices, each ranked against every day since 2017 (0 = calmest, 100 = tensest), updated every hour:
- Energy supply risk: armed violence in the countries that produce the world’s oil and gas, weighted by their output.
- Oil shipping-route risk: armed violence around the straits seaborne oil passes through, from Hormuz to the Red Sea and Malacca, weighted by the oil that flows through each.
- Major economies risk: armed violence in the 30 largest economies, weighted by their GDP.
Which markets move with which tension
| Market | Riftrate | Energy supply | Shipping routes | Major economies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +0.17 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.07 |
| US 10-year yield | +0.12 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.11 |
| US dollar | -0.01 | -0.01 | +0.03 | -0.01 |
| Swiss franc | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| Japanese yen | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| US natural gas | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.06 | -0.09 |
| WTI oil | +0.13 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.09 |
| US 2-year yield | +0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| Financial stress | -0.02 | +0.00 | -0.02 | +0.02 |
| Stock-market stress | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.00 | +0.02 |
| Volatility | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Credit stress | -0.08 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Emerging markets | -0.06 | +0.00 | -0.03 | +0.00 |
| Euro | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.00 |
Correlation of weekly changes since 2018, from −1 to +1. Bold: too large to be chance alone (more than 2 ÷ √weeks). For stress indices, + means more stress when tension rises; for currencies, + means the currency strengthens.
What markets did after past crises
For each crisis and détente tracked by Riftrate since 2018: how each market moved between the last close before the event and 20 trading days later.
| Market | After a crisis (avg, 20 sessions) | Crises followed by a rise | After a détente (avg) | Weekly link with Riftrate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +11.1% | 5 of 9 | +2.7% | a weak positive link |
| US 10-year yield | +0.08 pt | 6 of 9 | -0.13 pt | a weak positive link |
| US dollar | +0.5% | 5 of 9 | -0.1% | almost no link |
| Swiss franc | -0.4% | 5 of 9 | +0.8% | almost no link |
| Japanese yen | -1.5% | 1 of 9 | +0.5% | almost no link |
| US natural gas | +10.8% | 5 of 9 | -3.5% | almost no link |
| WTI oil | +7.3% | 5 of 9 | +5.1% | a weak positive link |
| US 2-year yield | +0.10 pt | 4 of 9 | -0.20 pt | a weak positive link |
| Financial stress | +0.22 pt | 5 of 9 | -0.12 pt | almost no link |
| Stock-market stress | +0.03 pt | 3 of 9 | -0.04 pt | almost no link |
| Volatility | +0.21 pt | 5 of 9 | -0.14 pt | almost no link |
| Credit stress | +0.02 pt | 4 of 9 | +0.07 pt | almost no link |
| Emerging markets | +0.06 pt | 4 of 9 | +0.03 pt | almost no link |
For elections, sanctions, coups and peace deals, and for ten local currencies from the Brazilian real to the Korean won, see the events and markets library, and how to tell correlation from causation.
How to read it
- A crisis is a single date: the day an attack, an invasion or a strike happened. Markets often move before, when tension builds, and the figures here only start the day before.
- Few events, big caveats. A handful of crises is not a statistical law. One large move can drive an average.
- Correlation is not causation. Oil also moves with OPEC decisions, interest rates and the economy. A link between Riftrate and a market says that they often moved together, not that one caused the other.
- What research finds. The IMF’s April 2025 Global Financial Stability Report finds that geopolitical risk events lower stock prices on average, by about 1 percentage point a month in advanced economies and 2.5 in emerging markets, and that international military conflicts hit emerging-market stocks hardest (IMF blog).
- Not investment advice. This page describes the past. It does not forecast prices.
Data
Daily prices and rates retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: the U.S. Energy Information Administration for oil and gas, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for Treasury yields, the dollar index and exchange rates. Stock-market, volatility, credit and emerging-market stress from the OFR Financial Stress Index of the Office of Financial Research, U.S. Department of the Treasury. Licensed stock indices such as the S&P 500 are not reproduced.
Frequently asked questions
Which markets react most to geopolitical risk?
Oil reacts most when a conflict touches producers or shipping routes, safe-haven currencies and Treasuries when investors take fright, and emerging-market assets when a conflict hits trade or confidence. The table above shows which links held week by week since 2018.
What is the energy supply risk index?
A daily Riftrate index of armed violence in the countries that produce the world’s oil and gas, each weighted by its share of world output and ranked against every day since 2017.
Can Riftrate predict oil prices?
No. It measures how tense the news is. It shows what markets did after similar readings in the past, which is context for a decision, not a forecast.