Japanese yen since 2018, weekly · dotted lines: crises and détentes
Japanese yen and geopolitical crises
The yen is another classic safe haven, although its link to crises has weakened in recent years. After the 9 crises tracked by Riftrate since 2018, the Japanese yen moved by -1.5% on average over the next 20 trading days, and rose after 1 of them. Week by week, it shows almost no link (-0.06) with Riftrate.
Latest0.6US cents per 100 yen · 23 October 2026
After a crisis-1.5%average, 20 trading days
After a détente+0.5%average, 20 trading days
After a jump of Riftrate-0.5%+15 points in a week, 47 cases
Every eventfrom the last close before the event
| Date | Event | Type | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 February 2026 | Iran war | Crisis | -1.0% | -2.6% |
| 3 January 2026 | US intervention in Venezuela | Crisis | -0.9% | +0.8% |
| 24 June 2025 | Israel–Iran ceasefire | Détente | +1.6% | +0.1% |
| 13 June 2025 | Twelve-Day War | Crisis | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| 13 April 2024 | Iran strikes Israel | Crisis | -0.9% | -1.8% |
| 7 October 2023 | October 7 attack | Crisis | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 10 March 2023 | Iran–Saudi deal | Détente | +2.6% | +3.6% |
| 24 February 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine | Crisis | -0.4% | -4.9% |
| 15 August 2021 | Fall of Kabul | Crisis | -0.0% | -0.2% |
| 15 September 2020 | Abraham Accords | Détente | +0.9% | +0.1% |
| 3 January 2020 | Soleimani killed | Crisis | -1.0% | -0.1% |
| 12 June 2018 | Singapore summit | Détente | -0.5% | -1.2% |
| 27 April 2018 | Inter-Korean summit | Détente | +0.2% | +0.0% |
| 14 April 2018 | Western strikes on Syria | Crisis | -0.1% | -1.6% |
How to read this. A handful of events is not a law: one large move can drive an average, and markets also move for reasons unrelated to geopolitics. The link with Riftrate is a correlation of weekly changes, not a cause. This page describes the past and is not investment advice.
Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, series DEXJPUS, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.