Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Russia invades Ukraine
Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the largest war in Europe since 1945. Riftrate went from 93 the day before to 100 at its peak 6 days later.
Day before93Crisis
Peak within 14 days100 ▲ +6.72 March 2022 · Crisis
Days to the peak6after the event
Back within 5 points9 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic unrest | 60 | 100 | ▲ +39.7 |
| Escalation momentum | 76 | 99 | ▲ +23.2 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 80 | 100 | ▲ +19.6 |
| Media tone | 77 | 95 | ▲ +17.6 |
| War & military | 97 | 100 | ▲ +2.8 |
| Economic coercion | 100 | 100 | 0.0 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 100 | 100 | 0.0 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 100 | 100 | 0.0 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +2.0% | +19.8% | +28.4% | bigger than 96% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.03 pt | -0.13 pt | +0.33 pt | bigger than 82% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +1.1% | +1.0% | +1.2% | bigger than 88% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.9% | -0.4% | -1.5% | bigger than 39% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.3% | -0.4% | -4.9% | bigger than 38% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.