Riftrate · 60 days before and after
US intervention in Venezuela
US forces strike military sites around Caracas and capture President Nicolás Maduro. Riftrate went from 40 the day before to 74 at its peak 8 days later.
Day before40Easing
Peak within 14 days74 ▲ +33.611 January 2026 · Tension
Days to the peak8after the event
Back within 5 points11 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diplomatic rupture | 8 | 80 | ▲ +71.8 |
| Domestic unrest | 2 | 42 | ▲ +40.5 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 22 | 59 | ▲ +36.7 |
| War & military | 15 | 50 | ▲ +35.0 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 81 | 99 | ▲ +18.0 |
| Economic coercion | 10 | 24 | ▲ +14.7 |
| Media tone | 80 | 89 | ▲ +9.2 |
| Escalation momentum | 96 | 96 | ▲ +0.1 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +1.6% | +5.1% | +16.6% | bigger than 78% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.02 pt | -0.01 pt | +0.10 pt | bigger than 9% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.0% | +0.5% | -1.0% | bigger than 57% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.1% | -1.2% | +1.6% | bigger than 79% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.3% | -0.9% | +0.8% | bigger than 49% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.