Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Abraham Accords
Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain sign the Abraham Accords at the White House, normalising their relations. Riftrate went from 47 the day before to 31 at its lowest 8 days later.
Day before47Neutral
Low within 14 days31 ▼ −15.523 September 2020 · Easing
Days to the low8after the event
Back within 5 points6 daysafter the low
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the low
| Signal | Before | Low day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Media tone | 68 | 33 | ▼ −35.0 |
| Economic coercion | 60 | 88 | ▲ +27.5 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 44 | 20 | ▼ −23.2 |
| Domestic unrest | 68 | 50 | ▼ −18.4 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 35 | 18 | ▼ −16.2 |
| War & military | 40 | 24 | ▼ −15.4 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 67 | 59 | ▼ −8.7 |
| Escalation momentum | 23 | 22 | ▼ −1.1 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +2.5% | +4.7% | +5.0% | bigger than 69% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.00 pt | +0.00 pt | +0.06 pt | bigger than 0% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.0% | +0.6% | +0.2% | bigger than 69% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | bigger than 77% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.2% | +0.9% | +0.1% | bigger than 73% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.