Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Iran war
Israel and the United States launch strikes on targets across Iran, opening the 2026 Iran war. Riftrate went from 56 the day before to 93 at its peak 7 days later.
Day before56Tension
Peak within 14 days93 ▲ +37.27 March 2026 · Crisis
Days to the peak7after the event
Back within 5 points37 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| War & military | 52 | 100 | ▲ +47.9 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 53 | 99 | ▲ +46.0 |
| Media tone | 57 | 100 | ▲ +42.9 |
| Economic coercion | 62 | 21 | ▼ −41.4 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 64 | 100 | ▲ +35.5 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 67 | 100 | ▲ +32.9 |
| Escalation momentum | 76 | 100 | ▲ +24.2 |
| Domestic unrest | 32 | 46 | ▲ +13.2 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +8.3% | +34.2% | +70.3% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.08 pt | +0.18 pt | +0.47 pt | bigger than 84% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.7% | +1.4% | +2.6% | bigger than 96% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -1.4% | -1.2% | -3.6% | bigger than 78% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.9% | -1.0% | -2.6% | bigger than 56% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Other events
Full historyWestern strikes on Syria 2018Inter-Korean summit 2018Singapore summit 2018Soleimani killed 2020Abraham Accords 2020Fall of Kabul 2021Russia invades Ukraine 2022Iran–Saudi deal 2023October 7 attack 2023Iran strikes Israel 2024Twelve-Day War 2025Israel–Iran ceasefire 2025US intervention in Venezuela 2026