Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Fall of Kabul
The Taliban enter Kabul as the Afghan government collapses, two weeks before the end of the US withdrawal. Riftrate went from 28 the day before to 70 at its peak 14 days later.
Day before28Easing
Peak within 14 days70 ▲ +41.929 August 2021 · Tension
Days to the peak14after the event
Back within 5 points92 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diplomatic rupture | 16 | 100 | ▲ +83.9 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 14 | 85 | ▲ +71.3 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 20 | 82 | ▲ +62.7 |
| War & military | 30 | 92 | ▲ +62.6 |
| Escalation momentum | 80 | 52 | ▼ −28.4 |
| Domestic unrest | 6 | 26 | ▲ +19.9 |
| Media tone | 76 | 65 | ▼ −10.7 |
| Economic coercion | 17 | 8 | ▼ −8.5 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -1.2% | -7.6% | +2.9% | bigger than 85% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.03 pt | -0.03 pt | +0.04 pt | bigger than 29% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.1% | +1.3% | -0.0% | bigger than 95% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.4% | -0.2% | -0.6% | bigger than 14% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.4% | -0.0% | -0.2% | bigger than 1% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.