Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Iran strikes Israel
Iran launches its first direct attack on Israel from its own territory: more than 300 drones and missiles, almost all intercepted. Riftrate went from 65 the day before to 92 at its peak 7 days later.
Day before65Tension
Peak within 14 days92 ▲ +26.620 April 2024 · Crisis
Days to the peak7after the event
Back within 5 points6 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economic coercion | 30 | 64 | ▲ +33.3 |
| Media tone | 62 | 94 | ▲ +32.0 |
| Escalation momentum | 68 | 99 | ▲ +31.4 |
| War & military | 64 | 90 | ▲ +26.8 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 73 | 97 | ▲ +23.2 |
| Domestic unrest | 28 | 45 | ▲ +17.5 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 83 | 98 | ▲ +14.4 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 62 | 74 | ▲ +11.8 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -2.4% | -5.5% | -10.7% | bigger than 75% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.13 pt | +0.12 pt | +0.00 pt | bigger than 60% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.1% | +0.7% | -0.2% | bigger than 66% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.2% | +0.3% | +0.6% | bigger than 24% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.7% | -0.9% | -1.8% | bigger than 58% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.