Energy supply risk since 2018, weekly average · 0 = calmest day, 100 = tensest · dotted lines: crises and détentes
Energy supply risk
Is armed violence rising in the countries that produce the world’s oil and gas? Today: 56 out of 100, around its usual level.
Today56out of 100 · around its usual level
In 7 days▼ −26.5 ptschange of the reading
Tenser than56%of days since 2017
Last time in this band27 September 2026before this episode · between 30 and 70
When the index was between 30 and 70: what markets did next72 episodes since 2018, at least 30 days apart
| Market | Median, next 20 sessions | Times it rose | Any day: median | Any day: rose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +1.2% | 39 of 72 | +1.1% | 54% |
| US 10-year yield | +0.00 pt | 35 of 72 | +0.02 pt | 53% |
| US dollar | -0.2% | 31 of 71 | +0.0% | 50% |
| Swiss franc | +0.1% | 38 of 71 | +0.0% | 51% |
| Japanese yen | -0.4% | 34 of 71 | -0.4% | 42% |
| US natural gas | -1.8% | 31 of 72 | +0.7% | 51% |
| WTI oil | +3.1% | 41 of 72 | +0.9% | 53% |
| US 2-year yield | +0.01 pt | 37 of 72 | +0.01 pt | 51% |
| Financial stress | -0.02 pt | 36 of 72 | -0.11 pt | 43% |
| Stock-market stress | -0.02 pt | 34 of 72 | -0.02 pt | 44% |
| Volatility | -0.03 pt | 34 of 72 | -0.04 pt | 46% |
| Credit stress | -0.01 pt | 32 of 72 | -0.03 pt | 42% |
| Emerging markets | -0.01 pt | 35 of 72 | -0.01 pt | 44% |
| Euro | -0.1% | 34 of 71 | -0.2% | 46% |
Which markets move with itweekly changes since 2018
| Market | Weekly link | In words |
|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +0.09 | almost no link |
| US natural gas | -0.09 | almost no link |
| WTI oil | +0.08 | almost no link |
| US 10-year yield | +0.04 | almost no link |
| US 2-year yield | +0.04 | almost no link |
| Japanese yen | -0.02 | almost no link |
| Euro | -0.02 | almost no link |
| Volatility | +0.02 | almost no link |
| Credit stress | -0.02 | almost no link |
| US dollar | -0.01 | almost no link |
| Swiss franc | -0.01 | almost no link |
| Emerging markets | +0.00 | almost no link |
| Financial stress | +0.00 | almost no link |
| Stock-market stress | -0.00 | almost no link |
How it is built
Is armed violence rising in the countries that produce the world’s oil and gas? Riftrate measures, for each country, the share of its news about armed violence over the last 7 days, from the GDELT event database. This index averages those shares with economic weights: each country counts in proportion to its share of world crude oil production (half) and natural gas production (half). The average is then ranked against every day since 2017.
| Country | Weight |
|---|---|
| United States | 23.1% |
| Russia | 14.3% |
| Saudi Arabia | 7.3% |
| Iran | 6.3% |
| China | 6.0% |
| Canada | 5.9% |
| Qatar | 3.6% |
| Brazil | 3.2% |
| United Arab Emirates | 3.1% |
| Norway | 2.8% |
| Iraq | 2.7% |
| Algeria | 2.1% |
| Australia | 2.1% |
| Nigeria | 1.6% |
| Kuwait | 1.6% |
33 countries in all; the 15 largest weights are shown.
Weights from:
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil and condensate production January–November 2025, as ranked by Visual Capitalist
- OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2026, natural gas production in 2025, as compiled by Wikipedia
Today the countries pushing it up most, compared with their own past year, are Saudi Arabia (+8.8 pts of its news about armed violence), Algeria (+1.2 pts of its news about armed violence), Indonesia (+1.4 pts of its news about armed violence).
Frequently asked questions
What is the energy supply risk index?
A daily measure from Riftrate that answers one question: is armed violence rising in the countries that produce the world’s oil and gas? It reads armed-violence news country by country and weighs each country by its economic weight: each country counts in proportion to its share of world crude oil production (half) and natural gas production (half).
How is it different from the main Riftrate index?
The main index measures tension in the whole world, wherever it happens. This index only looks where the economy is exposed, so a war far from energy producers or trade routes barely moves it.
Does a high reading mean prices will move?
Not necessarily. In the 72 past episodes when the index was between 30 and 70, the Brent oil moved by +1.2% (median) over the next 20 trading days, against +1.1% on a typical day. Markets also move for reasons unrelated to conflict, and often price risk before the news. This is a description of the past, not a forecast or investment advice.
How often is it updated?
Every hour, with the rest of Riftrate. Each reading covers the last 7 days of news.
What do 0 and 100 mean?
The reading is a rank against every day since 2017: 0 is the calmest day on record, 100 the tensest, and 90 means tenser than 90% of days.
How to read this. A rank of how tense the news is, not a price forecast. The market figures describe the past: episodes overlap with other news, and a correlation is not a cause. Not investment advice. Full method on the methodology page.