WTI crude oil since 2018, weekly · dotted lines: crises and détentes
WTI crude oil and geopolitical crises
The US benchmark for crude oil, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma. It usually moves with Brent. After the 9 crises tracked by Riftrate since 2018, the WTI oil moved by +7.3% on average over the next 20 trading days, and rose after 5 of them. Week by week, it shows a weak positive link (+0.13) with Riftrate.
Latest103.4$ per barrel · 27 October 2026
After a crisis+7.3%average, 20 trading days
After a détente+5.1%average, 20 trading days
After a jump of Riftrate+1.3%+15 points in a week, 47 cases
Every eventfrom the last close before the event
| Date | Event | Type | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 February 2026 | Iran war | Crisis | +35.6% | +51.2% |
| 3 January 2026 | US intervention in Venezuela | Crisis | +3.1% | +7.7% |
| 24 June 2025 | Israel–Iran ceasefire | Détente | -4.4% | -2.6% |
| 13 June 2025 | Twelve-Day War | Crisis | +10.2% | -0.8% |
| 13 April 2024 | Iran strikes Israel | Crisis | -3.1% | -7.7% |
| 7 October 2023 | October 7 attack | Crisis | +4.6% | -1.6% |
| 10 March 2023 | Iran–Saudi deal | Détente | -9.9% | +6.7% |
| 24 February 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine | Crisis | +20.2% | +24.7% |
| 15 August 2021 | Fall of Kabul | Crisis | -8.9% | +3.2% |
| 15 September 2020 | Abraham Accords | Détente | +5.5% | +5.3% |
| 3 January 2020 | Soleimani killed | Crisis | -2.6% | -15.7% |
| 12 June 2018 | Singapore summit | Détente | -0.3% | +12.1% |
| 27 April 2018 | Inter-Korean summit | Détente | +0.4% | +3.8% |
| 14 April 2018 | Western strikes on Syria | Crisis | +1.4% | +5.0% |
How to read this. A handful of events is not a law: one large move can drive an average, and markets also move for reasons unrelated to geopolitics. The link with Riftrate is a correlation of weekly changes, not a cause. This page describes the past and is not investment advice.
Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, series DCOILWTICO, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.