Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Twelve-Day War
Israel strikes Iranian nuclear and military sites and Iran retaliates with missiles. The United States bombs Iranian nuclear sites on 22 June; a ceasefire takes hold on 24 June. Riftrate went from 75 the day before to 85 at its peak 1 day later.
Day before75Tension
Peak within 14 days85 ▲ +10.014 June 2025 · Crisis
Days to the peak1after the event
Back within 5 points2 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diplomatic rupture | 56 | 79 | ▲ +23.6 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 55 | 77 | ▲ +21.5 |
| War & military | 50 | 71 | ▲ +21.4 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 78 | 96 | ▲ +17.4 |
| Economic coercion | 77 | 68 | ▼ −9.3 |
| Media tone | 88 | 97 | ▲ +8.4 |
| Domestic unrest | 74 | 77 | ▲ +2.8 |
| Escalation momentum | 97 | 100 | ▲ +2.3 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +7.3% | +13.5% | -0.6% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.05 pt | +0.02 pt | +0.07 pt | bigger than 8% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.1% | +0.7% | +0.0% | bigger than 69% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.1% | -0.6% | +1.9% | bigger than 46% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.3% | -1.6% | -2.7% | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.