Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Western strikes on Syria
The United States, the United Kingdom and France strike Syrian government sites linked to chemical weapons, a week after the chemical attack on Douma. Riftrate went from 92 the day before to 98 at its peak 4 days later.
Day before92Crisis
Peak within 14 days98 ▲ +6.618 April 2018 · Crisis
Days to the peak4after the event
Back within 5 points3 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economic coercion | 61 | 85 | ▲ +24.3 |
| Domestic unrest | 72 | 91 | ▲ +18.7 |
| Escalation momentum | 90 | 96 | ▲ +6.9 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 98 | 94 | ▼ −3.7 |
| Media tone | 81 | 84 | ▲ +3.6 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 97 | 100 | ▲ +2.5 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 98 | 100 | ▲ +1.2 |
| War & military | 99 | 100 | ▲ +0.5 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -1.5% | +2.0% | +6.8% | bigger than 30% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.01 pt | +0.14 pt | +0.15 pt | bigger than 90% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.2% | +0.9% | +2.8% | bigger than 76% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.4% | -1.2% | -3.7% | bigger than 68% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.2% | -0.1% | -1.6% | bigger than 5% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.