Oil shipping-route risk since 2018, weekly average · 0 = calmest day, 100 = tensest · dotted lines: crises and détentes
Oil shipping-route risk
Is armed violence rising around the straits that seaborne oil must pass through? Today: 72 out of 100, above its usual level.
Today72out of 100 · above its usual level
In 7 days▼ −15.4 ptschange of the reading
Tenser than72%of days since 2017
Last time in this band19 September 2026before this episode · between 70 and 90
When the index was between 70 and 90: what markets did next53 episodes since 2018, at least 30 days apart
| Market | Median, next 20 sessions | Times it rose | Any day: median | Any day: rose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -0.1% | 26 of 53 | +1.1% | 54% |
| US 10-year yield | +0.05 pt | 29 of 53 | +0.02 pt | 53% |
| US dollar | +0.0% | 27 of 53 | +0.0% | 50% |
| Swiss franc | -0.0% | 26 of 53 | +0.0% | 51% |
| Japanese yen | -0.5% | 20 of 53 | -0.4% | 42% |
| US natural gas | -0.9% | 24 of 53 | +0.7% | 51% |
| WTI oil | +0.5% | 28 of 53 | +0.9% | 53% |
| US 2-year yield | +0.00 pt | 25 of 53 | +0.01 pt | 51% |
| Financial stress | -0.10 pt | 24 of 53 | -0.11 pt | 43% |
| Stock-market stress | -0.02 pt | 22 of 53 | -0.02 pt | 44% |
| Volatility | -0.01 pt | 25 of 53 | -0.04 pt | 46% |
| Credit stress | -0.02 pt | 24 of 53 | -0.03 pt | 42% |
| Emerging markets | -0.02 pt | 25 of 53 | -0.01 pt | 44% |
| Euro | -0.2% | 26 of 53 | -0.2% | 46% |
Which markets move with itweekly changes since 2018
| Market | Weekly link | In words |
|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +0.10 | almost no link |
| WTI oil | +0.10 | almost no link |
| Japanese yen | -0.06 | almost no link |
| US natural gas | -0.06 | almost no link |
| US 10-year yield | +0.04 | almost no link |
| Credit stress | -0.03 | almost no link |
| US dollar | +0.03 | almost no link |
| Emerging markets | -0.03 | almost no link |
| Euro | -0.02 | almost no link |
| Swiss franc | -0.02 | almost no link |
| Financial stress | -0.02 | almost no link |
| US 2-year yield | +0.01 | almost no link |
| Stock-market stress | -0.00 | almost no link |
| Volatility | +0.00 | almost no link |
How it is built
Is armed violence rising around the straits that seaborne oil must pass through? Riftrate measures, for each country, the share of its news about armed violence over the last 7 days, from the GDELT event database. This index averages those shares with economic weights: each strait counts in proportion to the oil that flows through it, shared between the countries on its shores. The average is then ranked against every day since 2017.
| Strait | Oil flow, 2023 | Countries on its shores |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Malacca | 23.7 million b/d | Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore |
| Strait of Hormuz | 20.9 million b/d | Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates |
| Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline | 8.8 million b/d | Egypt |
| Bab el-Mandeb | 8.6 million b/d | Yemen, Djibouti, Eritrea |
| Turkish Straits | 3.4 million b/d | Turkey |
| Panama Canal | 2.1 million b/d | Panama |
Weights from:
Today the countries pushing it up most, compared with their own past year, are Yemen (+11.0 pts of its news about armed violence), Indonesia (+1.4 pts of its news about armed violence), Malaysia (+0.2 pts of its news about armed violence).
Frequently asked questions
What is the oil shipping-route risk index?
A daily measure from Riftrate that answers one question: is armed violence rising around the straits that seaborne oil must pass through? It reads armed-violence news country by country and weighs each country by its economic weight: each strait counts in proportion to the oil that flows through it, shared between the countries on its shores.
How is it different from the main Riftrate index?
The main index measures tension in the whole world, wherever it happens. This index only looks where the economy is exposed, so a war far from energy producers or trade routes barely moves it.
Does a high reading mean prices will move?
Not necessarily. In the 53 past episodes when the index was between 70 and 90, the Brent oil moved by -0.1% (median) over the next 20 trading days, against +1.1% on a typical day. Markets also move for reasons unrelated to conflict, and often price risk before the news. This is a description of the past, not a forecast or investment advice.
How often is it updated?
Every hour, with the rest of Riftrate. Each reading covers the last 7 days of news.
What do 0 and 100 mean?
The reading is a rank against every day since 2017: 0 is the calmest day on record, 100 the tensest, and 90 means tenser than 90% of days.
How to read this. A rank of how tense the news is, not a price forecast. The market figures describe the past: episodes overlap with other news, and a correlation is not a cause. Not investment advice. Full method on the methodology page.