RIFTRATE Get the gauge

US 2-year Treasury yield and geopolitical crises

Short-term yields follow what investors expect from the Federal Reserve. They can fall when a crisis is expected to slow the economy. After the 9 crises tracked by Riftrate since 2018, the US 2-year yield moved by +0.10 pt on average over the next 20 trading days, and rose after 4 of them. Week by week, it shows a weak positive link (+0.12) with Riftrate.

Latest4.61% · 29 October 2026
After a crisis+0.10 ptaverage, 20 trading days
After a détente-0.20 ptaverage, 20 trading days
After a jump of Riftrate+0.04 pt+15 points in a week, 47 cases
US 2-year Treasury yield since 2018, weekly · dotted lines: crises and détentes
1.142.604.05201820192020202120222023202420252026Western strikes on Syria, 14 April 2018Inter-Korean summit, 27 April 2018Singapore summit, 12 June 2018Soleimani killed, 3 January 2020Abraham Accords, 15 September 2020Fall of Kabul, 15 August 2021Russia invades Ukraine, 24 February 2022Iran–Saudi deal, 10 March 2023October 7 attack, 7 October 2023Iran strikes Israel, 13 April 2024Twelve-Day War, 13 June 2025Israel–Iran ceasefire, 24 June 2025US intervention in Venezuela, 3 January 2026Iran war, 28 February 2026
Every eventfrom the last close before the event
DateEventTypeAfter 5 sessionsAfter 20 sessions
28 February 2026Iran warCrisis+0.18 pt+0.50 pt
3 January 2026US intervention in VenezuelaCrisis+0.07 pt+0.10 pt
24 June 2025Israel–Iran ceasefireDétente-0.12 pt-0.01 pt
13 June 2025Twelve-Day WarCrisis+0.00 pt+0.00 pt
13 April 2024Iran strikes IsraelCrisis+0.09 pt-0.01 pt
7 October 2023October 7 attackCrisis+0.01 pt-0.15 pt
10 March 2023Iran–Saudi dealDétente-0.76 pt-1.08 pt
24 February 2022Russia invades UkraineCrisis-0.08 pt+0.55 pt
15 August 2021Fall of KabulCrisis+0.00 pt-0.02 pt
15 September 2020Abraham AccordsDétente+0.00 pt+0.02 pt
3 January 2020Soleimani killedCrisis+0.00 pt-0.25 pt
12 June 2018Singapore summitDétente+0.04 pt+0.07 pt
27 April 2018Inter-Korean summitDétente+0.00 pt+0.01 pt
14 April 2018Western strikes on SyriaCrisis+0.09 pt+0.17 pt

How to read this. A handful of events is not a law: one large move can drive an average, and markets also move for reasons unrelated to geopolitics. The link with Riftrate is a correlation of weekly changes, not a cause. This page describes the past and is not investment advice.

Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, series DGS2, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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