Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Inter-Korean summit
Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un meet at Panmunjom and sign a declaration on peace and the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. Riftrate went from 60 the day before to 34 at its lowest 8 days later.
Day before60Tension
Low within 14 days34 ▼ −25.85 May 2018 · Easing
Days to the low8after the event
Back within 5 points6 daysafter the low
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the low
| Signal | Before | Low day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| War & military | 59 | 23 | ▼ −35.8 |
| Domestic unrest | 88 | 57 | ▼ −31.0 |
| Escalation momentum | 36 | 7 | ▼ −28.4 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 64 | 38 | ▼ −25.9 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 62 | 84 | ▲ +22.6 |
| Media tone | 28 | 7 | ▼ −20.8 |
| Economic coercion | 36 | 20 | ▼ −16.0 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 41 | 32 | ▼ −8.6 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -0.1% | -2.6% | +1.6% | bigger than 42% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.04 pt | -0.06 pt | -0.02 pt | bigger than 46% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.2% | +0.7% | +1.9% | bigger than 71% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.0% | -1.0% | -0.4% | bigger than 61% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.0% | bigger than 15% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.