Riftrate · 60 days before and after
October 7 attack
A Hamas-led attack on southern Israel kills around 1,200 people and takes about 250 hostages. Israel declares war and launches its offensive on Gaza. Riftrate went from 62 the day before to 98 at its peak 12 days later.
Day before62Tension
Peak within 14 days98 ▲ +36.119 October 2023 · Crisis
Days to the peak12after the event
Back within 5 points42 daysafter the peak
The signals that moved mostday before vs day of the peak
| Signal | Before | Peak day | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Media tone | 10 | 100 | ▲ +89.5 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 30 | 100 | ▲ +70.2 |
| Escalation momentum | 61 | 99 | ▲ +37.5 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 65 | 100 | ▲ +35.2 |
| Economic coercion | 35 | 56 | ▲ +21.6 |
| Domestic unrest | 89 | 99 | ▲ +9.8 |
| War & military | 95 | 100 | ▲ +5.2 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 98 | 100 | ▲ +1.5 |
Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +4.0% | +7.4% | -0.4% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.12 pt | -0.07 pt | -0.11 pt | bigger than 46% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.3% | -0.0% | -1.4% | bigger than 3% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.5% | +0.8% | +1.3% | bigger than 60% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.3% | -0.3% | -0.5% | bigger than 24% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.