Brent crude oil since 2018, weekly · dotted lines: crises and détentes
Brent crude oil and geopolitical crises
Oil reacts when a conflict threatens producers or shipping routes, as in the Middle East or around Russia. After the 9 crises tracked by Riftrate since 2018, the Brent oil moved by +11.1% on average over the next 20 trading days, and rose after 5 of them. Week by week, it shows a weak positive link (+0.17) with Riftrate.
Latest123.1$ per barrel · 27 October 2026
After a crisis+11.1%average, 20 trading days
After a détente+2.7%average, 20 trading days
After a jump of Riftrate+1.7%+15 points in a week, 47 cases
Every eventfrom the last close before the event
| Date | Event | Type | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 February 2026 | Iran war | Crisis | +34.2% | +70.3% |
| 3 January 2026 | US intervention in Venezuela | Crisis | +5.1% | +16.6% |
| 24 June 2025 | Israel–Iran ceasefire | Détente | -8.3% | -3.3% |
| 13 June 2025 | Twelve-Day War | Crisis | +13.5% | -0.6% |
| 13 April 2024 | Iran strikes Israel | Crisis | -5.5% | -10.7% |
| 7 October 2023 | October 7 attack | Crisis | +7.4% | -0.4% |
| 10 March 2023 | Iran–Saudi deal | Détente | -9.7% | +6.9% |
| 24 February 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine | Crisis | +19.8% | +28.4% |
| 15 August 2021 | Fall of Kabul | Crisis | -7.6% | +2.9% |
| 15 September 2020 | Abraham Accords | Détente | +4.7% | +5.0% |
| 3 January 2020 | Soleimani killed | Crisis | -0.7% | -13.9% |
| 12 June 2018 | Singapore summit | Détente | +0.4% | +3.4% |
| 27 April 2018 | Inter-Korean summit | Détente | -2.6% | +1.6% |
| 14 April 2018 | Western strikes on Syria | Crisis | +2.0% | +6.8% |
How to read this. A handful of events is not a law: one large move can drive an average, and markets also move for reasons unrelated to geopolitics. The link with Riftrate is a correlation of weekly changes, not a cause. This page describes the past and is not investment advice.
Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, series DCOILBRENTEU, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.