Credit stress (OFR index) since 2018, weekly · dotted lines: crises and détentes
Credit stress (OFR index) and geopolitical crises
The credit part of the OFR Financial Stress Index: the extra cost of borrowing for riskier borrowers, which rises when investors fear defaults. After the 9 crises tracked by Riftrate since 2018, the credit stress moved by +0.02 pt on average over the next 20 trading days, and rose after 4 of them. Week by week, it shows almost no link (-0.08) with Riftrate.
Latest-0.92index points, 0 = average · 28 October 2026
After a crisis+0.02 ptaverage, 20 trading days
After a détente+0.07 ptaverage, 20 trading days
After a jump of Riftrate+0.03 pt+15 points in a week, 47 cases
Every eventfrom the last close before the event
| Date | Event | Type | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 February 2026 | Iran war | Crisis | +0.02 pt | +0.19 pt |
| 3 January 2026 | US intervention in Venezuela | Crisis | -0.05 pt | -0.11 pt |
| 24 June 2025 | Israel–Iran ceasefire | Détente | -0.05 pt | -0.15 pt |
| 13 June 2025 | Twelve-Day War | Crisis | +0.01 pt | -0.12 pt |
| 13 April 2024 | Iran strikes Israel | Crisis | +0.03 pt | -0.07 pt |
| 7 October 2023 | October 7 attack | Crisis | -0.01 pt | -0.07 pt |
| 10 March 2023 | Iran–Saudi deal | Détente | +0.48 pt | +0.38 pt |
| 24 February 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine | Crisis | +0.30 pt | +0.27 pt |
| 15 August 2021 | Fall of Kabul | Crisis | +0.02 pt | -0.07 pt |
| 15 September 2020 | Abraham Accords | Détente | +0.06 pt | -0.04 pt |
| 3 January 2020 | Soleimani killed | Crisis | -0.01 pt | +0.10 pt |
| 12 June 2018 | Singapore summit | Détente | +0.01 pt | +0.05 pt |
| 27 April 2018 | Inter-Korean summit | Détente | +0.06 pt | +0.11 pt |
| 14 April 2018 | Western strikes on Syria | Crisis | -0.03 pt | +0.05 pt |
How to read this. A handful of events is not a law: one large move can drive an average, and markets also move for reasons unrelated to geopolitics. The link with Riftrate is a correlation of weekly changes, not a cause. This page describes the past and is not investment advice.
Data: Office of Financial Research, “OFR Financial Stress Index”, column “Credit”, financialresearch.gov. Public data of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.