US natural gas (Henry Hub) since 2018, weekly · dotted lines: crises and détentes
US natural gas (Henry Hub) and geopolitical crises
Gas prices react to wars that disrupt supply, although the US market is less exposed than Europe’s. After the 9 crises tracked by Riftrate since 2018, the US natural gas moved by +10.8% on average over the next 20 trading days, and rose after 5 of them. Week by week, it shows almost no link (-0.09) with Riftrate.
Latest2.8$ per million BTU · 27 October 2026
After a crisis+10.8%average, 20 trading days
After a détente-3.5%average, 20 trading days
After a jump of Riftrate+3.3%+15 points in a week, 47 cases
Every eventfrom the last close before the event
| Date | Event | Type | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 February 2026 | Iran war | Crisis | +3.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 January 2026 | US intervention in Venezuela | Crisis | -28.2% | +10.0% |
| 24 June 2025 | Israel–Iran ceasefire | Détente | -6.9% | -9.7% |
| 13 June 2025 | Twelve-Day War | Crisis | +6.6% | +10.7% |
| 13 April 2024 | Iran strikes Israel | Crisis | +5.1% | +57.4% |
| 7 October 2023 | October 7 attack | Crisis | -9.7% | -17.9% |
| 10 March 2023 | Iran–Saudi deal | Détente | -2.0% | -12.8% |
| 24 February 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine | Crisis | +1.3% | +14.6% |
| 15 August 2021 | Fall of Kabul | Crisis | -0.3% | +31.9% |
| 15 September 2020 | Abraham Accords | Détente | -39.0% | +6.0% |
| 3 January 2020 | Soleimani killed | Crisis | +0.0% | -6.8% |
| 12 June 2018 | Singapore summit | Détente | -0.3% | -3.3% |
| 27 April 2018 | Inter-Korean summit | Détente | -2.1% | +2.5% |
| 14 April 2018 | Western strikes on Syria | Crisis | -1.4% | -2.5% |
How to read this. A handful of events is not a law: one large move can drive an average, and markets also move for reasons unrelated to geopolitics. The link with Riftrate is a correlation of weekly changes, not a cause. This page describes the past and is not investment advice.
Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration, series DHHNGSP, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.