Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Mexican peso
Mexican pesoBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum
Claudia Sheinbaum wins the presidency and the ruling coalition nears a two-thirds majority in Congress. Riftrate read 43 the day before and 43 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before43Easing
Within 14 days43 ▼ −0.7Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryMexico
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican peso | -3.3% | -7.0% | -7.6% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -3.7% | -1.6% | +9.9% | bigger than 27% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.10 pt | -0.08 pt | -0.03 pt | bigger than 41% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.2% | +1.2% | +1.9% | bigger than 90% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.9% | +0.8% | -0.1% | bigger than 58% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.7% | +0.4% | -2.7% | bigger than 28% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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