Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of euro
EuroBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Germany federal election
Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU comes first; he becomes chancellor at the head of a coalition. Riftrate read 35 the day before and 53 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before35Easing
Within 14 days53 ▲ +17.9Neutral
CategoryElectionElections
CountryGermany
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | +0.2% | -0.5% | +3.4% | bigger than 39% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +0.0% | -0.2% | -3.0% | bigger than 3% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.02 pt | -0.18 pt | -0.17 pt | bigger than 73% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.0% | +0.9% | -0.7% | bigger than 78% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.3% | -0.3% | +1.8% | bigger than 24% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.1% | -0.8% | +0.3% | bigger than 40% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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