Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Taiwan dollar
Taiwan dollarBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te
Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party wins Taiwan’s presidential election. Riftrate read 77 the day before and 79 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before77Crisis
Within 14 days79 ▲ +1.4Crisis
CategoryElectionElections
CountryTaiwan
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan dollar | -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.8% | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -0.2% | +1.0% | +4.6% | bigger than 16% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.11 pt | +0.15 pt | +0.21 pt | bigger than 73% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.9% | +0.9% | +1.2% | bigger than 79% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.9% | -1.9% | -2.7% | bigger than 92% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -1.5% | -2.1% | -3.0% | bigger than 89% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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