Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Mexican peso
Mexican pesoBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Mexico elects Andrés Manuel López Obrador
López Obrador wins Mexico’s presidential election by a wide margin. Riftrate read 25 the day before and 32 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before25Easing
Within 14 days32 ▲ +7.2Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryMexico
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican peso | -2.6% | +2.5% | +6.0% | bigger than 85% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -0.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% | bigger than 52% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.02 pt | +0.01 pt | +0.13 pt | bigger than 5% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.8% | -0.5% | -0.6% | bigger than 57% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.2% | +0.0% | +0.4% | bigger than 1% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | bigger than 3% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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