Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
US presidential election 2020
Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump; the result is called four days later. Riftrate read 27 the day before and 25 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before27Easing
Within 14 days25 ▼ −2.3Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryUnited States
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +1.0% | +8.3% | +24.0% | bigger than 87% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.03 pt | +0.09 pt | +0.08 pt | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.7% | -1.8% | -3.6% | bigger than 98% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.8% | +0.8% | +3.3% | bigger than 67% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.3% | -0.7% | +1.0% | bigger than 61% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: elections
The full libraryBrazil election, first round 2026 2026Germany federal election 2025US presidential election 2024 2024UK election: Labour landslide 2024France: snap election called 2024India: Modi’s BJP loses its majority 2024Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum 2024South Africa: ANC loses its majority 2024Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te 2024Brazil elects Lula 2022UK election: Conservative majority 2019Brazil elects Jair Bolsonaro 2018Mexico elects Andrés Manuel López Obrador 2018