Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of euro
EuroBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
France: snap election called
After the European elections, Emmanuel Macron dissolves the National Assembly and calls a snap election. Riftrate read 30 the day before and 32 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before30Easing
Within 14 days32 ▲ +1.7Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryFrance
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | -0.5% | -1.0% | +0.1% | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +1.9% | +4.3% | +13.5% | bigger than 63% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.04 pt | -0.23 pt | -0.13 pt | bigger than 87% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.3% | +0.5% | -0.1% | bigger than 52% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.1% | +0.6% | -0.2% | bigger than 44% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.2% | -0.4% | -3.0% | bigger than 32% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: elections
The full libraryBrazil election, first round 2026 2026Germany federal election 2025US presidential election 2024 2024UK election: Labour landslide 2024India: Modi’s BJP loses its majority 2024Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum 2024South Africa: ANC loses its majority 2024Taiwan elects Lai Ching-te 2024Brazil elects Lula 2022US presidential election 2020 2020UK election: Conservative majority 2019Brazil elects Jair Bolsonaro 2018Mexico elects Andrés Manuel López Obrador 2018