Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brazilian real
Brazilian realBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Brazil election, first round 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro (47.0%) leads President Lula (45.2%) in the first round; the runoff is set for 25 October. On 5 October the Ibovespa closed up 7.7% at a record and the real gained about 4% against the dollar, according to press reports. Riftrate read 49 the day before and 76 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before49Neutral
Within 14 days76 ▲ +26.9Crisis
CategoryElectionElections
CountryBrazil
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazilian real | +4.7% | +4.9% | — | bigger than 99% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -7.4% | -4.0% | — | bigger than 62% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.03 pt | -0.04 pt | — | bigger than 27% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.1% | +0.2% | — | bigger than 24% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.2% | -0.2% | — | bigger than 16% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.1% | -0.3% | — | bigger than 27% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: www.riotimesonline.com. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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