Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Indian rupee
Indian rupeeBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
India: Modi’s BJP loses its majority
Results show Narendra Modi’s BJP short of a majority on its own; he stays in power with coalition partners. Riftrate read 41 the day before and 39 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before41Easing
Within 14 days39 ▼ −2.0Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryIndia
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indian rupee | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | bigger than 65% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -1.5% | +4.1% | +13.2% | bigger than 61% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.08 pt | +0.06 pt | +0.02 pt | bigger than 30% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.3% | +1.3% | +1.6% | bigger than 91% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.6% | -0.2% | -1.0% | bigger than 12% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.8% | -0.6% | -3.4% | bigger than 39% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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