Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of South African rand
South African randBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
South Africa: ANC loses its majority
The African National Congress loses its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994. Riftrate read 43 the day before and 43 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before43Easing
Within 14 days43 ▲ +0.2Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountrySouth Africa
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South African rand | -0.7% | -2.2% | +0.3% | bigger than 75% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +0.2% | -7.4% | +6.7% | bigger than 87% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.07 pt | -0.21 pt | -0.22 pt | bigger than 84% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.6% | +1.1% | +2.3% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.3% | +2.3% | +1.5% | bigger than 95% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.5% | +1.3% | -2.4% | bigger than 70% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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