Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brazilian real
Brazilian realBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Brazil elects Jair Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro wins the presidential runoff against Fernando Haddad. Riftrate read 52 the day before and 58 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before52Neutral
Within 14 days58 ▲ +6.5Tension
CategoryElectionElections
CountryBrazil
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazilian real | +0.1% | -0.7% | -5.7% | bigger than 33% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +0.2% | -8.1% | -25.5% | bigger than 90% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.00 pt | +0.14 pt | -0.02 pt | bigger than 91% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.4% | +0.1% | +1.2% | bigger than 15% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.2% | bigger than 43% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.7% | -1.3% | -1.9% | bigger than 68% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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