Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brazilian real
Brazilian realBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Brazil elects Lula
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeats Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. Riftrate read 58 the day before and 58 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before58Tension
Within 14 days58 ▼ −0.5Tension
CategoryElectionElections
CountryBrazil
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazilian real | +2.1% | +6.2% | +1.1% | bigger than 97% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -1.4% | +5.2% | -11.9% | bigger than 65% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.08 pt | +0.15 pt | -0.27 pt | bigger than 81% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.3% | -0.1% | -2.8% | bigger than 4% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.4% | -0.1% | +4.9% | bigger than 10% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.6% | +0.3% | +6.8% | bigger than 25% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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