Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of British pound
British poundBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
UK election: Labour landslide
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party wins a landslide, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Riftrate read 26 the day before and 41 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before26Easing
Within 14 days41 ▲ +15.1Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryUnited Kingdom
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British pound | +0.3% | +1.2% | +0.0% | bigger than 73% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +0.1% | -1.9% | -7.8% | bigger than 31% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.08 pt | -0.16 pt | -0.37 pt | bigger than 71% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.2% | -0.8% | +0.1% | bigger than 74% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.3% | +0.8% | +3.0% | bigger than 55% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.5% | +1.8% | +7.6% | bigger than 82% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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