Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of British pound
British poundBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
UK election: Conservative majority
Boris Johnson’s Conservatives win a large majority, clearing the way for Brexit. Riftrate read 36 the day before and 42 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before36Easing
Within 14 days42 ▲ +6.6Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryUnited Kingdom
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British pound | -0.3% | -0.7% | -0.9% | bigger than 48% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +2.0% | +5.7% | +2.1% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.11 pt | +0.13 pt | +0.04 pt | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.2% | -0.4% | -1.0% | bigger than 52% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.0% | +0.4% | +1.3% | bigger than 35% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.4% | -0.8% | -0.8% | bigger than 63% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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