Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Mexican peso
Mexican pesoChinese yuanBrent oilSwiss franc
US presidential election 2024
Donald Trump wins the presidency; markets price in tariffs on trading partners. Riftrate read 44 the day before and 39 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before44Easing
Within 14 days39 ▼ −5.0Easing
CategoryElectionElections
CountryUnited States
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican peso | -0.8% | -2.4% | -0.8% | bigger than 87% of 5-day moves |
| Chinese yuan | -0.1% | -1.8% | -2.3% | bigger than 97% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +2.8% | -3.6% | -2.8% | bigger than 53% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.05 pt | +0.12 pt | -0.12 pt | bigger than 55% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.0% | +1.8% | +1.7% | bigger than 97% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.0% | -2.2% | -2.3% | bigger than 94% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.0% | -1.8% | +1.2% | bigger than 77% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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