Figures updated · Text reviewed · By the Riftrate team · How the index is built
What safe havens did after 14 wars and attacks since 2018
The table measures each market from the last close before the event to 5 trading days after it, across every war and attack in the Riftrate library. For the US 10-year yield, a fall means bond prices rose, which is what a flight to safety looks like.
| Market | Typical move after 5 sessions (median) | Times it acted as a safe haven | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-year yield | +0.03 pt | 6 of 14 | -0.16 pt to +0.19 pt |
| US dollar | +0.6% | 12 of 14 | -1.0% to +1.4% |
| Swiss franc | -0.5% | 3 of 14 | -2.0% to +0.9% |
| Japanese yen | -0.9% | 2 of 14 | -3.4% to +0.2% |
Currencies are measured against the US dollar (a rise means the currency strengthened); the dollar is the broad trade-weighted index. Past data, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why the dollar has often beaten the franc and the yen
Recent wars have often pushed oil prices up. Higher oil feeds inflation fears, which can keep US interest rates high and support the dollar, while Switzerland and Japan import most of their energy. A reputation built over decades can also be priced in long before a crisis: when everyone expects the franc to rise, it may already have done so before the first shot.
How to read the table
- The median is the middle move: half the events did better, half did worse. It is less sensitive to one extreme crisis than an average.
- “Times it acted as a safe haven” counts the events after which the currency strengthened, or the Treasury yield fell (bond prices rose). A haven that did so 5 times out of 10 behaved like a coin toss.
- The range shows the best and the worst case. A wide range means the haven depended on the type of crisis.
Every event, market by market, is in the library, with a “how unusual” score that compares each move with every 5-day move of the previous three years.
The usual safe havens, one by one
The Swiss franc
The franc is the textbook safe-haven currency: Switzerland has a large current-account surplus, low debt and a long record of political neutrality. Research on currency markets, such as Ranaldo and Söderlind (Review of Finance, 2010), found that the franc tends to gain when stock markets fall and risk rises. Against the dollar, after the wars and attacks of recent years, it more often weakened. See the Swiss franc page.
The Japanese yen
Japan is the world’s largest net creditor, so in a scare Japanese investors bring money home and the yen rises. The effect has weakened when Japanese interest rates were far below those abroad, which is why the yen is called a less reliable haven. See the yen page.
US Treasury bonds
When investors are worried, they buy US government bonds, which pushes their yields down. This works best when the crisis threatens growth. When a war pushes oil and inflation up, yields can rise instead. See the US 10-year yield page.
The US dollar
The dollar is the currency the world uses for trade and debt, so demand for it rises in most global scares. It also moves with US interest rates and oil, so it does not rise after every war. See the US dollar page.
Gold
Gold has a long reputation as a crisis asset, and academic work such as Baur and Lucey (Financial Review, 2010) found it acts as a short-lived safe haven for stocks. Riftrate does not publish gold prices, because the reference price data is licensed.
Why safe havens sometimes fail
A safe haven protects against fear, not against every consequence of a war. When a conflict pushes up oil prices, inflation fears can lift bond yields and the dollar together. When a crisis is expected, the move happens before the event and markets may even reverse on the day. And when the war is far from oil, trade routes and the major economies, markets may not move at all.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best safe haven during a war?
There is no single best one. After the wars and attacks in Riftrate’s data since 2018, the most consistent was the US dollar, but none of them worked every time. The table above shows how often each one acted as a safe haven.
Do safe-haven currencies rise when world tension rises?
Often, but not always and not by much. Week by week, the link between Riftrate and each market is shown on its market page. Strong reactions usually come from surprise events near oil or the major economies.
Is gold a safe haven in a war?
Gold is widely treated as one and research supports a short-lived safe-haven effect, but Riftrate does not track its price because the data is licensed.
Is this investment advice?
No. These pages describe what happened after past events. Past data is not a forecast.