Figures updated · Text reviewed · By the Riftrate team · How the index is built
At a glance
| Measure | Made by | What it reads | How often | Scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) | Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board) | Share of articles about geopolitical threats and acts in 10 major newspapers | Monthly, with a daily version updated every Monday | Index level: higher means more articles about geopolitical risk |
| BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) | BlackRock Investment Institute | How much brokerage reports and financial news discuss each of its top risks | Regularly, on its geopolitical risk dashboard | 0 = historical average, 1 = one standard deviation above |
| Doomsday Clock | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists | Expert judgement on nuclear, climate and technology threats | Once a year | Seconds to midnight |
| Conflict trackers (CFR Global Conflict Tracker, ACLED, UCDP) | Council on Foreign Relations; research projects | Conflicts and violent events, assessed by analysts or coded by researchers | From weekly to yearly | Lists, maps and event counts |
| Riftrate World Tension Index | Riftrate | Eight signals from the GDELT event database plus the GPR index | Every hour | 0 = calm, 100 = crisis |
The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR)
The academic reference. Caldara and Iacoviello count the share of newspaper articles that discuss wars, terrorism and tensions between states, and published the method in the American Economic Review in 2022. The data is free on Matteo Iacoviello’s website, with a historical index back to 1900. Riftrate uses the GPR as one of its eight signals. Full comparison: Riftrate vs the GPR index.
The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator
Built for investors. BlackRock tracks a list of top geopolitical risks and measures how much financial analysts and media talk about each one, using a language model trained on brokerage reports and financial news. It answers “how much are markets paying attention to this risk?” rather than “how tense is the world?”. It is published on BlackRock’s geopolitical risk dashboard.
The Doomsday Clock
A symbol, not a measurement. Once a year, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists sets the clock to signal how close humanity is to catastrophe. In January 2026 it was set at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest ever. Full comparison: Riftrate vs the Doomsday Clock.
Conflict trackers
For the ground truth of wars, researchers rely on event and casualty data: the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), which counted 61 state-based armed conflicts in 2024, the most since its records began in 1946, and ACLED, which codes political violence week by week. The Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker adds an expert view of each conflict. These sources count conflicts; they do not sum them up in one daily number.
Riftrate
Riftrate turns the world’s news into one number from 0 to 100, every hour, with history since 2018 and a page for each of 74 countries. Today it reads 40.0 (Easing). Its strengths are speed, a single scale anyone can read, and the link to markets through the library. Its limits: it measures news, not casualties, and it does not forecast. The methodology lists every formula.
Which one should you use?
- To follow the world day by day: Riftrate, with the daily brief.
- For academic research over decades: the GPR index, and Riftrate’s open data for daily country detail.
- To see what investors are worried about: the BlackRock indicator, and Riftrate’s market risk indices.
- For casualties and the facts of each war: UCDP and ACLED.
- For the long-term threat to humanity: the Doomsday Clock.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best geopolitical risk index?
It depends on the question. The GPR index is the academic standard, the BlackRock indicator tracks market attention, and Riftrate gives an hourly reading of world tension in the news with country and market detail.
Is there a real-time geopolitical risk index?
Riftrate is updated every hour from the GDELT event database, which reads news from around the world in more than 100 languages. Most other indices are monthly, weekly or yearly.
Are geopolitical risk indices free?
The GPR index and Riftrate publish their data for free under a Creative Commons licence. BlackRock’s indicator can be viewed for free on its website.