Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Chinese yuan
Chinese yuanEuroCanadian dollarMexican peso
US “Liberation Day” tariffs
The United States announces sweeping tariffs on imports from almost every country. Riftrate read 58 the day before and 54 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before58Tension
Within 14 days54 ▼ −3.9Neutral
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryUnited States
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese yuan | +0.0% | -0.9% | +0.0% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| Euro | +0.6% | +1.0% | +5.5% | bigger than 71% of 5-day moves |
| Canadian dollar | +0.0% | +0.8% | +3.3% | bigger than 70% of 5-day moves |
| Mexican peso | -0.8% | -1.8% | +3.8% | bigger than 77% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -0.7% | -16.6% | -19.8% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.03 pt | +0.09 pt | +0.00 pt | bigger than 42% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.0% | +0.3% | -3.0% | bigger than 36% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.1% | +3.1% | +7.1% | bigger than 98% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.4% | +1.6% | +5.0% | bigger than 73% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: sanctions and trade wars
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