Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Chinese yuan
Chinese yuanBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Yuan falls past 7 per dollar
China lets the yuan weaken past 7 per dollar and the US Treasury labels China a currency manipulator. Riftrate read 62 the day before and 79 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before62Tension
Within 14 days79 ▲ +16.5Crisis
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryChina
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese yuan | -1.6% | -1.7% | -3.0% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -2.9% | -6.1% | -0.1% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.11 pt | -0.12 pt | -0.36 pt | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.3% | +0.2% | +1.7% | bigger than 27% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +1.0% | +1.1% | -0.8% | bigger than 78% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.6% | +1.3% | +0.3% | bigger than 77% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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