Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Chinese yuan
Chinese yuanEuroBrent oilSwiss franc
US pauses most new tariffs
The United States suspends most of the new tariffs for 90 days, while raising those on China. Riftrate read 48 the day before and 51 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before48Neutral
Within 14 days51 ▲ +3.0Neutral
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryUnited States
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese yuan | -0.2% | +0.3% | +1.7% | bigger than 51% of 5-day moves |
| Euro | +1.2% | +3.5% | +4.0% | bigger than 99% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +3.8% | +2.7% | -0.9% | bigger than 45% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.08 pt | +0.09 pt | +0.00 pt | bigger than 43% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.2% | -2.4% | -3.8% | bigger than 99% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +1.7% | +4.3% | +3.9% | bigger than 99% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +1.3% | +2.7% | +3.0% | bigger than 94% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: sanctions and trade wars
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