Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Chinese yuan
Chinese yuanBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
US announces tariffs on Chinese goods
The United States announces tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports, opening the trade war. Riftrate read 72 the day before and 71 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before72Tension
Within 14 days71 ▼ −1.3Tension
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryChina
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese yuan | -0.2% | +0.4% | +0.8% | bigger than 69% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +1.2% | -0.0% | +9.5% | bigger than 0% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.06 pt | -0.12 pt | +0.03 pt | bigger than 82% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.5% | -0.8% | -1.3% | bigger than 75% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.5% | +0.0% | -1.3% | bigger than 1% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.9% | +0.0% | -0.9% | bigger than 0% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: sanctions and trade wars
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