Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Chinese yuan
Chinese yuanBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
First US tariffs on China take effect
US tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods take effect and China retaliates. Riftrate read 27 the day before and 38 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before27Easing
Within 14 days38 ▲ +10.9Easing
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryChina
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese yuan | -0.1% | -0.4% | -3.0% | bigger than 67% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -2.7% | -6.5% | -5.4% | bigger than 81% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.02 pt | +0.01 pt | +0.14 pt | bigger than 10% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.3% | -0.2% | +0.2% | bigger than 19% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.2% | -0.8% | -0.2% | bigger than 57% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.1% | -1.6% | -0.8% | bigger than 79% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: sanctions and trade wars
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