Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
US leaves the Iran nuclear deal
The United States withdraws from the 2015 nuclear agreement and announces it will reimpose sanctions on Iran. Riftrate read 34 the day before and 80 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before34Easing
Within 14 days80 ▲ +45.4Crisis
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryIran
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -0.8% | +4.6% | -2.5% | bigger than 68% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.02 pt | +0.05 pt | -0.03 pt | bigger than 38% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.4% | -0.1% | +1.5% | bigger than 14% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.1% | +0.5% | +1.7% | bigger than 33% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.0% | -0.3% | -0.4% | bigger than 22% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: sanctions and trade wars
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